Nigeria could record an estimated 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 if an exceptionally strong El Niño develops, according to projections by researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab.
The projection places Nigeria at risk of recording the highest number of additional heat-related fatalities worldwide under the severe climate scenario, with researchers calling for urgent measures to protect vulnerable populations.
The study estimates that a super El Niño could contribute to approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally over the six-month period.
Four African countries, Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad, are projected to account for 66,800 of those deaths, with Nigeria representing nearly half of the estimated fatalities across the four countries.
Sudan is projected to record 17,500 additional deaths, followed by Niger with 10,000 and Chad with 8,000.
Researchers identified rising temperatures across the Sahel, widespread poverty, unreliable electricity supply and inadequate access to cooling facilities as major factors increasing the region's exposure to extreme heat.
They warned that Nigeria's population of approximately 237.5 million could face significant risks because many households lack the resources needed to cope with prolonged periods of high temperatures.
According to the researchers, more than 60 per cent of Nigerians were estimated to be living below the national poverty line in 2025, making it difficult for many families to afford effective protection against extreme heat.
Frequent electricity outages were also identified as a major concern, particularly for households that depend on electric fans and other cooling equipment.
The researchers explained that poorer communities generally experience higher heat-related mortality than wealthier populations exposed to similar temperatures because they have fewer resources to reduce their exposure.
To limit potential fatalities, they urged governments to improve hospital preparedness, establish cooling centres, introduce early warning systems and strengthen protection for people who work outdoors.
A super El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become exceptionally warmer than normal, influencing weather conditions across different regions of the world.
The warning comes as researchers also reported unusually high heat-related mortality across Europe during the summer of 2026.
An estimated 50,000 people died from heat-related causes across the continent, making the period one of the deadliest summers for extreme heat this century.
The estimated fatalities exceeded the previous record of 29,000 heat-related deaths recorded during the summer of 2022.
Italy, France, Spain, Germany and the United Kingdom were among the countries with the highest estimated numbers of excess deaths linked to extreme temperatures.
The European findings were based on research involving scientists from Imperial College London, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and universities in Copenhagen, Venice and Bern.
Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London's Centre for Environmental Policy, described the summer of 2026 as potentially the worst on record for heat-related mortality across much of Europe.